Why an Economic Slowdown Will NOT Crush Real Estate this Time

Why an Economic Slowdown Will NOT Crush Real Estate this Time

Why an Economic Slowdown Will NOT Crush Real Estate this Time | MyKCM

Last week, the National Association for Business Economics released their February 2019 Economic Policy Survey. The survey revealed that a majority of the panel believe an economic slowdown is in the near future:

“While only 10% of panelists expect a recession in 2019, 42% say a recession will happen in 2020, and 25% expect one in 2021.”

Their findings coincide with three previous surveys calling for a slowdown sometime in the next two years:

  1. The Pulsenomics Survey of Market Analysts
  2. The Wall Street Journal Survey of Economists
  3. The Duke University Survey of American CFOs

That raises the question: Will the real estate market be impacted like it was during the last recession?

A recession does not equal a housing crisis. According to the dictionary definition, a recession is:

“A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.”

During the last recession, prices fell dramatically because the housing collapse caused the recession. However, if we look at the previous four recessions, we can see that home values weren’t negatively impacted:

  • January 1980 to July 1980: Home values rose 4.5%
  • July 1981 to November 1982: Home values rose 1.9%
  • July 1990 to March 1991: Home values fell less than 1%
  • March 2001 to November 2001: Home values rose 4.8%

Most experts agree with Ralph McLaughlin, CoreLogic’s Deputy Chief Economist, who recently explained:

“There’s no reason to panic right now, even if we may be headed for a recession. We’re seeing a cooling of the housing market, but nothing that indicates a crash.”

The housing market is just “normalizing”. Inventory is starting to increase and home prices are finally stabilizing. This is a good thing for both buyers and sellers as we move forward.

Bottom Line

If there is an economic slowdown in our near future, there is no need for fear to set in. As renowned financial analyst, Morgan Housel, recently tweeted:

“An interesting thing is the widespread assumption that the next recession will be as bad as 2008. Natural to think that way, but, statistically, highly unlikely. Could be over before you realized it began.”

Posted on March 12, 2019 at 9:58 pm
Julie Kennedy | Posted in Uncategorized |

Stop Statewide Rent Control – No on Senate Bill 608

Today we are asking that your contact your Senator to ask them to be a NO on Senate Bill 608.  please feel free to add your personal story to the talking points or submit as is. 

While SB 608 appears to take a new approach to historical rent control programs, it has the potential to cause the same unintended consequences that ultimately harm tenants:

• Economists nearly universally agree that rent control programs reduce the supply of housing units.
• A reduction in the number of units actually causes increased rents overall.
• Rent control programs decrease mobility for tenants and require larger security deposits to recoup costs associated with damage.
• Rent control programs encourage the transition of rental units to condominiums as well as provide incentive to tear down existing buildings for the construction of new ones.
• We have underbuilt housing of all kinds. But, recent investments in multifamily units in the Portland area has caused the steepest decline [in rents] across the US!
• The primarty goal of any good policy is “First, Do No Harm.” Rent control discourages further investments in much needed housing.

A statewide rent control system is unprecedented, no other state has adopted a statewide standard for rent control. The majority of states have laws that preempt rent control due to it’s evaluated negative impacts on supply.
• Only four states allow municipalities to impose rent control, and those programs have been anything but successful.

The Oregon Association of REALTORS® has been working in good faith with members of the Legislative Assembly to address structural problems with our housing shortage. We will continue to work with stakeholders and elected officials on positive solutions that do not cause further harm to our existing housing crisis.



Posted on January 30, 2019 at 12:35 am
Julie Kennedy | Posted in Uncategorized |

Why It Makes No Sense to Wait for Spring to Sell

Why It Makes No Sense to Wait for Spring to Sell

The price of any item (including residential real estate) is determined by the theory of ‘supply and demand.’ If many people are looking to buy an item and the supply of that item is limited, the price of that item increases.

The supply of homes for sale dramatically increases every spring, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). As an example, here is what happened to housing inventory at the beginning of 2018:

Why It Makes No Sense to Wait for Spring To Sell | MyKCM

Putting your home on the market now, rather than waiting for increased competition in the spring, might make a lot of sense.

Bottom Line

Buyers in the market during the winter are truly motivated purchasers and they want to buy now. With limited inventory currently available in most markets, sellers are in a great position to negotiate.

Posted on January 28, 2019 at 6:42 pm
Julie Kennedy | Posted in Uncategorized |

On the fence about listing your home?

The Best Time to List Your House? TODAY!

The Best Time to List Your House? TODAY! | MyKCM

You may have heard that the housing market is softening. There is no doubt that buyer traffic has decreased. There are fewer purchasers in the market than there were last month and at this time last year. What you may not have heard, however, is that there is still a severe shortage of listing inventory …

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Posted on January 11, 2019 at 5:44 pm
Julie Kennedy | Posted in Uncategorized |

Interest Rates???? Is this the time to buy?

Is the Recent Dip in Interest Rates Here to Stay? | MyKCM

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage climbed consistently throughout 2018 until the middle of November. After that point, rates returned to levels that we saw in August to close out the year at 4.55%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. After the first week of 2019, rates have continued their downward …

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Posted on January 9, 2019 at 4:03 pm
Julie Kennedy | Posted in Uncategorized |

Buying A Vacation Property? Now Is A Good Time!

Buying A Vacation Property? Now Is A Good Time! | MyKCM
Considering a vacation home??

Every year around this time, many homeowners begin the process of preparing their homes in case of extreme winter weather. Some others skip winter all together by escaping to their vacation homes in a warmer climate. For those homeowners staying at their first residence, AccuWeather warns: “The late-week cold shot should fade next week, but …

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Posted on January 8, 2019 at 10:37 pm
Julie Kennedy | Posted in Uncategorized |

Top Renovations to Complete Before You Sell Your House 

Top Renovations to Complete Before You Sell Your House [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights: If you are planning on listing your house for sale this year, here are the top four home improvement projects that will net you the most Return on Investment (ROI). Minor bathroom renovations can go a long way toward improving the quality of your everyday life and/or impressing potential buyers. Upgrading your landscaping …

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Posted on January 5, 2019 at 5:00 pm
Julie Kennedy | Posted in Uncategorized |

Thinking of buying a home this year? Look at what to watch

Excited About Buying A Home This Year? Here’s What to Watch

Excited About Buying A Home This Year? Here's What to Watch | MyKCM

As we kick off the new year, many families have made resolutions to enter the housing market in 2019. Whether you are thinking of finally ditching your landlord and buying your first home or selling your starter house to move into your forever home, there are two pieces of the real estate puzzle you need …

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Posted on January 2, 2019 at 5:21 pm
Julie Kennedy | Posted in Uncategorized |

How to save thousands on mortgage interest

How to Save Thousands of Dollars in Interest on Your Mortgage | Simplifying The Market

How to Save Thousands of Dollars in Interest on Your Mortgage

One of the most common loans you can get to buy a home is a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. If the thought of paying for your home over the course of 30-years seems daunting, here are some easy ways to shorten that term which will actually end up saving you money over the life of your loan.

Any additional payments to the principal amount (the original sum of money borrowed in a loan), helps to cut down the amount of interest that you will pay over the life of your loan and can also help to shave years off the loan as well.

When you make ‘extra’ payments toward your loan, the key is to let your lender/bank know that you want the extra funds to go toward your principal balance as they will not automatically do this for you.

You don’t have to double your mortgage payment to make a big difference either!

If you have a 30-year mortgage on a median-priced home ($250,000) with a 5% interest rate, you’ll be responsible for a $1,342.05 monthly principal and interest payment. Over the course of the loan, if you pay your exact monthly payment, you will have paid $233,133.89 in interest alone!

Paying a Little Extra Can Pay Off Big

1. Pay an additional 1/12th of your mortgage payment every month

Benefit: In the example above, adding $111.84 to your monthly mortgage payment might not seem like a lot, but each year you will have paid one extra month’s worth of payments which will shorten the term of your loan by 4 years and 8 months, all while saving you $42,000 in interest!

2. Pay an additional $50 per month towards your mortgage

Benefit: Fifty dollars might not seem like enough to make a difference on the term of your loan, but that small amount will save you over $21,000 in interest and will take over 2 years off the end of your loan. Twenty-eight years from now, you’ll be happy to pay off your loan that much sooner!

3. Make one-time lump sum payments when you can

Benefit: If you find yourself with a little extra money after a yearly bonus, a tax return, or from investment dividends, paying that money towards the principal can cut your costs. This option, however, is less predictable than the extra monthly payments.

If you have higher interest debts, like credit cards, consider using any extra funds you have to pay those debts down before applying that money towards your mortgage. Also, if you do not plan on staying in your home for more than 10 years, paying extra toward your mortgage might not make sense.

Bottom Line

If you’re wondering what strategies would work best for you to shorten the term of your loan, let’s get together to answer your questions.

Posted on December 27, 2018 at 6:52 pm
Julie Kennedy | Posted in Uncategorized |

Why get pre-approved?

Getting pre-approved for a mortgage with a lender before or at the early stages of your home buying process is a very important step. This allows your realtor to work fast if you find just the right home for you. It also keeps everyone looking for homes in the correct price range. Usually a realtor can give you some great references for a mortgage lender, if you do not already have one. We work hand in hand to complete the home buying process, so we get to know the good ones in the industry. Having experts on your side can make the home buying process way less scary and confusing.  If you have every wondered whether you could purchase a home, it does not cost anything to have a conversation with a realtor or mortgage lender, they can help you through the process.

Posted on October 19, 2018 at 5:43 pm
Julie Kennedy | Posted in Uncategorized |